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Arizona: Blue Flip

Senate: 13 Democrats 17 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 3 Seats
House: 29 Democrats, 31 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 2 Seats

To flip these chambers, Democrats need to win 3 Senate seats and 2 House seats. Momentum is on our side: in 2018, Democrats won a hotly contested federal Senate race and flipped 4 House seats, bringing the chamber to the closest partisan divide in decades. We can build on this energy to flip at least one chamber in 2020.

Flipping a chamber would break a stubborn Republican trifecta, keep Republicans from passing harmful and regressive legislation, and provide an opening for Democrats to advance their own progressive legislative agenda.

fast Facts

  • Current Control: Republican Trifecta (since 2009)
  • Gubernatorial Election: Not up in 2020
  • Length of State Senate and House Terms: 2 years
  • Candidate Filing Deadline: April 6, 2020
  • State Legislative Primary Date: August 4, 2020
  • Redistricting: Independent Redistricting Commission controls Congressional and state legislative redistricting
  • Electoral College Votes: 11

Broader 2020 Opportunities

  • Arizona is ‘blueing’ – and it has important implications for the presidential election. While Romney carried Arizona by 9 points in 2012, Trump’s win was by just 3.5 points. And since then, demographic and partisan shifts have continued to swing in our favor, as evidenced by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema’s narrow Senate win in 2018, and Democrats’ 4-seat pickup in the state house that year.
  • There is also an important, very competitive Senate race in Arizona this year (R-McSally), as well as several competitive Congressional races (including AZ-06, AZ-01 and AZ-02).
  • Working to support AZ state legislative candidates will be instrumental in helping drive turnout up and down the ticket in this historic election year.

Population Demographics



Median Age


Male | Female

49.7 % | 50.3%

Racial Diversity

White: 77.22%; Black: 4.39%; Asian: 3.29%; Two+ races: 3.64%; Other: 6.79%

2016 Election

Hillary Clinton

Votes: 1,161,167
Percentage: 44.58%
Electoral Votes: 0

Donald Trump

Votes: 1,252,401
Percentage: 48.08%
Electoral Votes: 11

District Lines

According to Ballotpedia, The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission is responsible for drawing both congressional and state legislative district lines. The commission is composed of five members. Of these, four are selected by the majority and minority leaders of each chamber of the state legislature from a list of 25 candidates nominated by the state commission on appellate court appointments. These 25 nominees comprise 10 Democrats, 10 Republicans, and 5 unaffiliated citizens. The four commission members appointed by legislative leaders then select the fifth member to round out the commission. The fifth member of the commission must belong to a different political party than the other commissioners. The governor, with a two-thirds vote in the Arizona State Senate, may remove a commissioner “for substantial neglect of duty, gross misconduct in office, or inability to discharge the duties of office.” The Arizona State Legislature may make recommendations to the commission, but ultimate authority is vested with the commission.

The Arizona Constitution requires that both congressional and state legislative districts be “contiguous, geographically compact, and respect communities of interest–all to the extent practicable.” The state constitution further mandates that district lines “should [follow] visible geographic features, city, town, and county boundaries, and undivided census tracts.” In addition, the constitution requires that “competitive districts be favored where doing so would not significantly detract from the goals above.”

  • Following the 2010 United States Census, Arizona was apportioned nine congressional districts.
  • The Arizona State Legislature is made up of 30 districts, each of which elections one state senator and two state representatives.
  • The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission is responsible for drawing both congressional and state legislative district lines.

New Voter restrictions

From the Brennan Center 2019 Report:
New restrictions enacted in 2019: Restrictions on access to emergency early and absentee voting and extension of voter ID requirements to early voting.

New restriction(s) in place for the first time in 2016: Limitations on mail-in ballot collection.

Background: In 2016, a Republican-controlled legislature passed a bill limiting collection of mail-in ballots and making it a felony to knowingly collect and turn in another voter’s completed ballot, even with that voter’s permission (the law has exceptions for direct family members, caregivers, and postal-service employees). Gov. Doug Ducey (R) signed the bill, which went into effect in the summer of 2016.

Other restrictions in play: In 2004, voters approved a referendum requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote. In June 2013, the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated this measure as it applied to the federal voter registration form. And in 2018, as part of the settlement of a lawsuit, the state agreed to register applicants to vote in federal elections, without documentary proof of citizenship, regardless of whether the state or federal form was used.

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