The Plan
Electoral Strategy

Our electoral strategy is the cornerstone of Sister District's mission: to build enduring progressive power in state legislatures and establish Democratic majorities. Through grassroots organizing, political research, and leveraging modern technology, our 70,000+ volunteers from across the nation are able to effectively support candidates in competitive districts in key states.

2023-2024 Electoral Map

We fill critical gaps at every point in the political life cycle. Our electoral plan is a cornerstone of our organization’s overall strategy to build enduring power in state legislatures. Our political strategy involves endorsing and supporting candidates in three types of state legislative chambers: blue flips, blue holds, and blue inroads.

Blue Flips

Chambers that Democrats can flip in one cycle.

Blue Hold

Chambers where Democrats have a fragile majority, which we must defend and expand.

Blue Inroads

Chambers where Democrats must build power for future chamber flips.

In 2023 Sister District will invest heavily in Virginia in targeted purple districts where we plan to make an outsized impact. We will also return to Mississippi and Louisiana, working to make Democratic inroads voter by voter in competitive districts that are strategically important. 

 

2023

Virginia: Flip the House and expand the Democratic Senate majority 

MississippiCreate inroads in competitive districts

LouisianaCreate inroads in competitive districts

Special Elections: Endorse in special state legislative elections when strategically appropriate.

2024

Target States: AZ, GA, MI, NC, PA, WI, NV

Nested Opportunities: Prioritize states with nested competitive Senate, House, and Gubernatorial elections, in Presidential battleground states. 

Incumbent Protection: Invest in fragile incumbents. Incumbent protection has always been a key component of our electoral strategy. 

The 2022 Plan

Bringing The Statehouse Fight to the Midterms

In 2022, 83% of the nation’s state legislative seats will be up for grabs.These critical elections will be difficult for Democrats, and our electoral strategy leverages broader electoral opportunities to maximize our impact.

This year, we have weighted our state selections towards:

States with competitive up-ballot races that have critical implications for the future of our democracy in 2022 and 2024. The most competitive state house districts are often in areas that are critical to winning competitive Gubernatorial, Senate, and House seats – driving turnout down the ballot also helps the top of the ticket.

States where redistricting commissions, courts and legislatures have produced fairer maps where Democrats can win this year and over the next decade.

States where Democratic incumbents are in particularly vulnerable positions, where we must stave off Republican supermajorities in battlegrounds states.

How the 2022 Electoral Environment looks for Democrats

Down-ballot Democrats are heading into a challenging political environment this year. Historically, the president’s party usually loses seats in midterm elections. This phenomenon is often misunderstood as a referendum on the President and his party. But actually, midterm performance is typically due to the “out” party feeling more enthusiasm – and therefore being more likely to vote. 

In 2018, Donald Trump was in the White House and Democrats were excited to turn out. But in 2022, with Joe Biden in office and Democratic majorities in both the House and the Senate, it’s likely that Republican voters will feel more motivated to get to the polls.

What does redistricting mean for the midterms?

Redistricting since the now-infamous 2020 U.S. Census produced very mixed results for Democrats at the state legislative level. Some redistricting commissions, legislatures and courts in battleground states have delivered relatively fair maps. But, the redistricting processes in other states have produced far less fair maps, and in some cases perpetuated outrageous gerrymanders. 

While there are a few states where Democrats have clear opportunities to pick up new state legislative seats in the short term, there are also a significant number of Democratic incumbents whose seats are at risk.

We know that it will take a tremendous amount of resources, energy, and attention to hold the line and make gains in our states this year. That’s why we have identified the states with the biggest opportunities for progressive change at the state legislative level.

Michigan Senate & House

State Legislative Opportunity

Michigan’s Independent Redistricting Commission produced maps that give Democrats the opportunity to compete for legislative majorities, in addition to defending a number of fragile incumbents.

Broader Electoral Opportunities

There are critical Gubernatorial defend (D-Whitmer) and Secretary of State (D-Benson) elections this year, as well as several competitive Congressional seats (MI-07, MI-08, MI-03, MI-10).

Battleground Context

Michigan narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and will continue to be a critical electoral battleground state from the Presidential level all the way down. It is also a democracy battleground, where GOP legislators and operatives are pursuing election subversion and sowing seeds of distrust in election administration.

Pennsylvania House

State Legislative Opportunity

Pennsylvania’s newly-enacted state legislative House map gives Democrats the opportunity to compete for a legislative majority, in addition to defending a number of fragile incumbents.

Broader Electoral Opportunities

There is an open Gubernatorial election this year, as well as a strong open Senate flip opportunity at the federal level. The Gubernatorial race is also critical because the Governor will appoint the next Secretary of State.

Battleground Context

Pennsylvania narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and it will continue to be a critical electoral battleground state from the Presidential level all the way down. It is also a democracy battleground, where GOP legislators and operatives are pursuing election subversion and sowing seeds of distrust in election administration.

Wisconsin Assembly

State Legislative Opportunity

While the new state legislative maps have not yet been finalized, we know that the Republican-controlled legislature is working to further gerrymander the maps. Democrats are likely to be just a few seats away from falling into a legislative superminority, which must be prevented.

Broader Electoral Opportunities

There is a critical Gubernatorial hold election this year (D-Evers), as well as a strong Senate flip opportunity (R-Johnson).

Battleground Context

Wisconsin narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and it will continue to be a critical battleground state from the Presidential level all the way down.

Georgia House

State Legislative Opportunity

The newly-drawn legislative maps remain gerrymandered in favor of Republicans; however, the House maps provide Democrats with the opportunity to compete for several new seats, in addition to defending fragile incumbents.

Broader Electoral Opportunities

There is a strong Gubernatorial flip opportunity this year (R-Kemp), as well as a critical Senate incumbent defend election (D-Warnock) and an important Secretary of State flip opportunity (R-Raffensperger).

Battleground Context

Georgia narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and it will continue to be a critical electoral battleground state from the Presidential level all the way down. It is also a democracy battleground, where GOP legislators and operatives are pursuing election subversion and sowing seeds of distrust in election administration.

2023: Flipping the House and Expanding VA’s Senate Democratic Majority, Creating Inroads in Mississippi and Louisiana

State Legislative Elections:

  • Virginia: We will work to take back the Democratic majority in the House and expand the Senate Democratic majority. 
  • Louisiana and Mississippi: The South is fertile ground for investment. The entire Mississippi and Louisiana legislatures are up for election in 2023, where we will continue to make inroads and build for the future.
  • Special Elections: We will endorse in strategically valuable special state legislative elections when possible.

Virginia House of Delegates

State Legislative Opportunity

House: 48 Democrats, 52 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 3 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Electoral Opportunities: All 100 seats are up for election in 2023

Contextual Opportunities

  • Virginia voted for Joe Biden in 2020 (54.11%)
  • Democrats lost the House in 2021 by 733 votes in 3 key districts
  • In 2022, Democrats lost one Congressional seat 
  • In 2023, Democrats have won key special elections in the 4th Congressional District, Jennifer McClellan (D) and Senate District 7, Aaron Rouse (D)
  • New state legislative maps are fair and provide Democrats with the opportunity to compete for a legislative majority
  • Due to new maps, a number of open seats and incumbent retirements create opportunities to compete in new districts

Virginia Senate

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 22 Democrats, 18 Republicans | Blue Majority: 3 Seats (Dems can only lose 1 seat to maintain majority)

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Electoral Opportunities: All 40 seats are up for election in 2023

Contextual Opportunities

  • New state legislative maps are fair and provide Democrats with the opportunity to compete for a legislative majority
  • Democrats lost one Congressional seat in 2022
  • Democrats won key special elections in the 4th Congressional District, Jennifer McClellan (D) and Senate District 7, Aaron Rouse (D)
  • Due to new maps, a number of open seats and incumbent retirements create opportunities to compete in new districts

Mississippi

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 15 Democrats, 36 Republicans, 1 Independent | To Flip Blue: 11 Seats

House: 45 Democrats, 74 Republicans, 2 Independents | To Flip Blue: 16 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

  • The entirety of both legislative chambers are up in 2023
  • Gubernatorial election – Tate Reeves (R) won in 2019 by only 5 pts
  • Entire Executive Branch including Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State are up for election in ‘23
  • Republicans have 1 seat supermajority in the senate

Contextual Opportunities

New legislative maps are not fair and continue to be gerrymandered. However, term limits and open seats may provide opportunities for Democratic inroads.

Louisiana

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 12 Democrats, 27 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 8 Seats

House: 34 Democrats, 69 Republicans, 2 Independents | To Flip Blue: 18 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

  • The entirety of both legislative chambers are up in 2023
  • Open gubernatorial election in 2023
  • Entire Executive Branch including Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State are up for election in 2023

Contextual Opportunities

New legislative maps are not fair and continue to be gerrymandered. However, term limits and open seats may provide opportunities for Democratic inroads

2024: Building on our 2022 Successes

Our electoral strategy will build upon our 2022 successes. Due to the volume of races, we cannot endorse candidates in every state holding elections. Instead, we prioritize endorsing where we can build momentum at the bottom of the ticket to decrease roll-off in naturally higher turnout environments with strategic higher-ticket Democratic opportunities.

While the final selection of states will depend on a variety of factors, in 2024, our likely states are below.

Arizona

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 14 Democrats 16 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 2 Seats

House: 29 Democrats, 31 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 2 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

US Senate Election in 2024 (Sinema (I) Opportunity for Democratic challenger)

Contextual Opportunities

  • Arizona narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020 (49.36%) 
  • Democrats won critical U.S. Senate election – Mark Kelly (D) in 2022 by 5 pts
  • Arizona voted for a Democratic Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General in 2022
  • Due to new maps, a number of open seats and incumbent retirements create opportunities to compete in new districts. The state’s new maps were drawn by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (AIRC), which has created maps not entirely insulated from political influence, but on which Democrats can compete for legislative majorities
  • Democrats held the line in the House and Senate in ‘22

Pennsylvania State Senate

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 22 Democrats, 27 Republicans, 1 Vacancy | To Flip Blue: 3 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Critical US Senate Hold – Robert Casey (D) won in ‘18 by 7 pts

Contextual Opportunities

  • Pennsylvania voted for Joe Biden in 2020 (50.01%).
  • Democrats flipped a US Senate Senate in 2022, John Fetterman (D) won by 5 pts
  • Democrats picked up 1 state senate seat in 2022

Nevada

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 13 Democrats, 8 Republicans | Blue Majority: 5 seats

Assembly: 28 Democrats, 14 Republicans | Blue Majority 14 seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Critical US Senate Hold – Jacky Rosen (D) won in 2018 by 5 pts

Contextual Opportunities

  • Nevada narrowly voted for Joe Biden (50.1%) in 2020
  • Democrats defended a critical US Senate seat – Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) won in 2022 by 1 pt
  • Democrats picked up 1 seat in the Senate and 2 seats in the Assembly in 2022. This resulted in a veto-proof supermajority in the Assembly (lower chamber)

Michigan

State Legislative Opportunity

House: 56 Democrats, 54 Republicans | Blue Majority: 2 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Open US Senate race in 2024 (Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring)

Contextual Opportunities

  • Michigan narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020 (50.62%)
  • Michigan voted for Democratic Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State in 2022
  • In 2022, Democrats picked up 4 seats in the Senate and 4 seats in the House flipping the chamber and creating a Democratic trifecta for the first time since 1984

Pennsylvania House of Representatives

State Legislative Opportunity

House: 102 Democrats, 101 Republicans | Blue Majority: 1 Seat

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Critical US Senate Hold – Robert Casey (D) won in ‘18 by 7 pts

Contextual Opportunities

  • Pennsylvania narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020 (50.01%)
  • Democrats flipped a US Senate Senate in 2022, John Fetterman (D) won in ‘22 by 5 pts
  • In 2022, Democrats picked up 10 seats flipping the House for the first time since 2010

Georgia

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 23 Democrats, 33 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 6 Seats

House: 78 Democrats, 100 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 12 Seats (2 vacancies)

Contextual Opportunities

  • Georgia voted for Joe Biden in 2020 (49.47%).
  • Democrats defended critical US Senate seat, Warnock (D) won by 4 pts in 2022
  • New legislative maps are not fair and continue to be gerrymandered. However, open seats and new districts will provide opportunities for Democratic inroads
  • In 2022, Democrats picked up 1 seat in the Senate and lost 3 seats in the House

Wisconsin

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 11 Democrats 21 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 6 Seats (1 vacant)

House: 35 Democrats, 64 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 15 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Critical Senate Hold – incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D) up for reelection

Contextual Opportunities

  • Wisconsin voted for Joe Biden in 2020 (49.45%)
  • Wisconsin voted for Democratic Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State in 2022
  • In 2022, Democrats lost 1 seat in the Senate, falling into superminority, and lost 3 seats in the House
  • New legislative maps are not fair and continue to be gerrymandered. However, open seats and new districts will provide opportunities for Democratic inroads

North Carolina

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 20 Democrats, 30 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 6 Seats

House: 49 Democrats, 71 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 12 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Open seat for Governor and Attorney General in 2024

Contextual Opportunities

  • In 2022, Democrats lost 2 seats in the Senate, falling into superminority. Democrats lost 2 seats in the House
  • New legislative maps continue to be contested. Open seats and new districts will provide some opportunities for Democratic inroads