Top-of-Ticket Concerns and State Legislative Races

After a tumultuous July, Vice President Kamala Harris emerged as – and is now officially – the Democratic presidential nominee. The implications of this shift from Biden’s candidacy are momentous at every level of the ballot, but in the crucial state-level elections happening across the country in November, the implications for down-ballot Democrats are especially profound.

While it’s true that state legislative elections are mostly messaged, run, and won or lost on local and state-specific issues, these races are also impacted by top-of-ticket concerns. While whoever’s running for president, senator, or governor doesn’t absolutely determine which party will win a state legislative district or majority control of a competitive legislative chamber, these top-ticket candidates are a penumbra under which candidates further down the ballot must contend.

The Benefits of a Smooth Transition for Down-Ballot Democrats

More mechanically, down ballot races are almost always run as part of a state party’s broader coordinated campaign efforts, especially during the critical “get out the vote” period right before the election. Under a coordinated campaign, critical infrastructure, data, and voter contact organizing capacity are pooled and shared, and a candidate at the top of the ticket with tight financials and a defensive posture is far less likely to share such resources with candidates at the bottom of that same ticket.

The ability of the Harris campaign to smoothly and swiftly transition the resources and infrastructure of the Biden campaign to her own efforts in key states is a tremendous benefit for down ballot Democrats this fall. Instead of those coordinated campaign efforts having to hastily dismantle and reassemble, the Biden campaign is, literally, just changing the name of its campaign committee to Harris for President. The general operation that the Biden team spent months building has remained largely intact.

Enthusiasm and Financial Support for Down-Ballot Candidates

As uncertainty reigned at the top of the ticket for weeks, the vast majority of state legislative candidates were already in full fall campaign mode. The consolidation of Party and public support behind Harris came at a pivotal time in the election cycle. Candidates at every level of the ballot are raising money to fund their organizing, field, and communications plans through the fall, and the fresh enthusiasm behind Harris’ bid is an essential catalyst for this summer campaign work. The tremendous outpouring of financial support for Harris indicates she will be in a strong position to have her operation assist down-ballot candidates, and down-ballot candidates will be able to embrace and benefit from the presidential campaign’s narrative. 

The Financial Advantage and Challenges for Down-Ballot Democrats

Let’s also remember that down ballot Republicans this year are stretched for cash and dealing with their own state party machinations. The RSLC, which is the central vehicle by which Republicans support down ballot candidates, recently announced it planned to spend $38 million this year – a paltry sum compared to the $160 million that Democratic groups have pledged to spend supporting state legislative candidates. These factors can help Democrats keep and flip closely-divided legislative chambers in swing states this November.

Addressing Down-Ballot Roll-Off

However, challenges remain for down-ballot Democrats. The research Sister District has done reveals that down-ballot roll-off (where a voter casts their ballot for candidates at the top of the ticket – president, senator, etc. – but not in the state legislative races) is a significant issue that impacts both parties, but Democrats disproportionately so. Analysis of this roll-off at the state legislative level across 10 competitive states revealed that from 2012 through 2022, state legislative Democrats in contested races experienced ballot roll-off 80% of the time, versus just 32% for contested state legislative Republicans. 

As an example of how brutal this impact is for Democrats, take Pennsylvania state Senate elections in 2022, where analysis revealed that down-ballot roll-off cost Democrats the Senate majority — and full trifecta control of state government. 

Combating Roll-Off with Coordinated Campaign Efforts

Combating this roll-off phenomenon requires strong financial resources to enable enough direct voter contact and a strong coordinated campaign effort in key states to help bring campaigns over the finish line. Harris becoming the Democratic presidential nominee not only ensures that current coordinated work will continue and strengthen without interruption, but also allows Democrats at every level of the ballot to focus on the issues that motivate voters, like abortion access and other freedoms.

Conclusion: The Close Races That Will Determine Control

We already know the outcome of the 2024 presidential election: it’s going to be close. But no races will be as close as those that determine majority control of legislative chambers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, and more. Scores of statehouse races are determined by margins of less than 1,000 votes each cycle, and this one will be no different. But the strength and solidarity Harris brings to the top of the ticket gives down-ballot Democrats a meaningful opportunity to combat roll-off – and bring home the Democratic legislative majorities that will work to protect Americans’ rights and freedoms.