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Minnesota

Minnesota: Blue Flip

Senate: 32 Democrats, 35 Republicans
To Flip Blue: 2 Seats

The Minnesota Senate is our pick for the best Democratic chamber-flip opportunity of 2020. Democrats are down just 2 seats in this chamber, which has not been up since 2016. This means there are great districts that have trended towards Democrats since their last election, which are ripe for flipping this year.

Flipping this chamber would deliver a Democratic trifecta to the state of Minnesota, since Governor Tim Walz is a Democrat who is not up in 2020, and Democrats flipped the state house blue in 2018.

These are ‘last chance’ races: whoever is elected in 2020 will draw the next round of district lines.

Fast facts

  • Current Control: Divided. Governor – D; Senate – R; House – D
  • Gubernatorial Election: Not in 2020
  • Length of State Senate Term: 4 years
  • Candidate Filing Deadline: June 2, 2020 (DFL endorsement conventions held earlier)
  • State Legislative Primary Date: August 11, 2020
  • Redistricting: Congressional and state legislative lines drawn by state legislature; Governor has veto power over maps
  • Electoral College Votes: 10

Broader 2020 Opportunities

  • Minnesota is a critical battleground presidential state. Trump narrowly lost Minnesota (44.9% to Clinton’s 46.4%) and plans to work hard to win it in 2020. His campaign has already announced a strategy to aggressively target small, often overlooked counties in MN to add up to a statewide win. Democrats cannot take MN’s 10 Electoral College votes for granted this year.
  • There is also an important Senate race in Minnesota this year, where Democrats must protect Tina Smith’s seat, as well as competitive Congressional races (including MN-07 and MN-02).
  • Working to support MN State Senate candidates will be instrumental in helping drive turnout up and down the ticket in this historic election year.

Population Demographics

Population

5,700,671

Median Age

37.8

Male | Female

49.3 % | 50.3%

Racial Diversity

White: 83.33%; Black: 6.19%; Asian: 4.75%; Two+ races: 2.85%; Other: 2.77%

2016 Election

Hillary Clinton

Votes: 1,367,716
Percentage: 46.44%
Electoral Votes: 10

Donald Trump

Votes: 1,322,951
Percentage: 44.92%
Electoral Votes: 20

District Lines

According to Ballotpedia, in Minnesota, congressional and state legislative district boundaries are drawn by the Minnesota State Legislature. These lines are subject to veto by the governor.

The Minnesota Constitution requires “that state Senate districts be contiguous, and that Representative districts be nested within Senate districts.” State statutes apply contiguity requirements to all congressional and state legislative districts. Furthermore, state statutes stipulate that political subdivisions should not be divided “more than necessary.

  • Following the 2010 United States Census, Minnesota was apportioned eight congressional seats.
  • Minnesota’s House of Representatives is made up of 134 districts; Minnesota’s State Senate is made up of 67 districts.
  • In Minnesota, congressional and state legislative district boundaries are drawn by the Minnesota State Legislature.

House District by caucus

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_House_of_Representatives

Senate Districts by caucus

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Senate

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