The Plan
Electoral Strategy

Our electoral strategy is the cornerstone of Sister District's mission: to build enduring progressive power in state legislatures and establish Democratic majorities. Through grassroots organizing, political research, and leveraging modern technology, our 70,000+ volunteers from across the nation are able to effectively support candidates in competitive districts in key states.

2024 Electoral Map

We fill critical gaps at every point in the political life cycle. Our electoral plan is a cornerstone of our organization’s overall strategy to build enduring power in state legislatures. Our political strategy involves endorsing and supporting candidates in three types of state legislative chambers: blue flips, blue holds, and blue inroads.

Blue Flips

Chambers that Democrats can flip in the current cycle.

Blue Hold

Chambers where Democrats have a fragile majority, which we must defend and expand.

Blue Inroads

Chambers where Democrats must build power for future chamber flips.

In 2024 Sister District will invest heavily in targeted purple districts where we plan to make an outsized impact. 

Target States: AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI, with expansion opportunities in MN, NH

Nested Opportunities: Prioritize Presidential battleground states with nested competitive Senate, House, and Gubernatorial elections and key ballot initiatives

Smart Defense: Invest in strategic chambers where we break and stave off Republican supermajorities

 

2024: Building on our 2022 + 2023 Successes

Our electoral strategy will build upon our 2022 + 2023 successes. Due to the volume of races, we cannot endorse candidates in every state holding elections. Instead, we prioritize endorsing where we can build momentum at the bottom of the ticket to decrease roll-off in naturally higher turnout environments with strategic higher-ticket Democratic opportunities.

While the final selection of our states and candidates will depend on a variety of factors, in 2024, our roadmap is below. Chambers identified as Expansion Opportunities are where we are eager to invest, provided we secure additional funds to do so. 

Arizona Senate & House

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 14 Democrats 16 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 2 Seats

House: 27 Democrats, 31 Republicans, 2 Vacancies | To Flip Blue: 2 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Nested Electoral Opportunities: 

  • Presidential battleground – Biden carried Arizona narrowly with 10,000 votes in 2020 (49.36%)
  • US Senate Election (Sinema (I)) – Democratic flip opportunity
  • Competitive Congressional races: CD1 & CD6
  • Potential Abortion Ballot Initiative

Contextual Opportunities

  • Democrats won critical U.S. Senate election – Mark Kelly (D) in 2022 by 5 pts
  • Arizona voted for a Democratic Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General in 2022
  • AZ’s Independent Redistricting Commission produced maps that give Democrats an opportunity to compete for legislative majorities.
  • Democrats held the line in the House and Senate in 2022

Wisconsin Assembly

State Legislative Opportunity

Assembly: 35 Democrats, 64 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 15 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Nested Electoral Opportunities: 

  • Presidential battleground – Joe Biden carried Wisconsin in 2020 with 22,000 votes (49.45%)
  • Critical Senate Hold – incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D) up for reelection
  • Competitive Congressional race: CD3

Contextual Opportunities

  • Post-2020 census, Wisconsin’s General Assembly produced terribly gerrymandered legislative maps; new progressive state Supreme Court majority ordered them thrown out, and fair maps were finalized at the end of February. This presents a massive, generational opportunity for Democrats to attain majorities.
  • In 2023, liberal judge Janet Protasiewicz won a seat on the state’s Supreme Court by a whopping 11 points, flipping to a progressive majority. The decisive win came from votes across the state – in fact, she would have won even without  populous and liberal Dane County.
  • Wisconsin voted for Democratic Governor, Lt. Governor (Sister District alum Sara Rodriguez), Attorney General and Secretary of State in 2022

Pennsylvania Senate

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 22 Democrats, 28 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 4 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Nested Electoral Opportunities: 

  • Presidential Battleground – Pennsylvania narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020 by 80,555 votes (50.01%)
  • Critical US Senate Hold – Bob Casey (D)
  • Competitive congressional races: CD17, CD7, CD8, CD10

Contextual Opportunities

  • Democrats flipped a US Senate seat in 2022, John Fetterman (D) won by 5 pts; and voted for Democratic Governor.
  • Democrats picked up 1 state senate seat in 2022

Expansion Opportunity: New Hampshire Senate & House

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 10 Democrats, 14 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 3 Seats

House: 194 Democrats, 201 Republicans, 2 Independent, 1 Other, 2 Vacancies | To Flip Blue: 4 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Nested Electoral Opportunities: 

  • Presidential Battleground – New Hampshire voted for Joe Biden in 2020 (52.71%)
  • Open Gubernatorial (Sununu-R not running for re-election)

Contextual Opportunities

  • Democrats held on to Senator Maggie Hassan’s seat and gained 21 seats in the state House, but reelected a Republican governor and lost a seat in the state Senate.
  • Democrats won all five special elections for the House held in 2023, each of which were marked by strong Democratic overperformance.

Michigan House

State Legislative Opportunity

House: 54 Democrats, 54 Republicans, 2 Vacancies | Blue Majority: 2 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Nested Electoral Opportunities: 

  • Presidential Battleground – Michigan narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020 (50.62%)
  • Open US Senate race in 2024 (Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring)
  • Competitive congressional races: CD7, CD8 & CD10

Contextual Opportunities

  • Michigan voted for Democratic Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State in 2022
  • In 2022, Democrats picked up 4 seats in the Senate and 4 seats in the House flipping the chamber and creating a Democratic trifecta for the first time since 1984 (Senate up next in 2026)

Pennsylvania House

State Legislative Opportunity

House: 102 Democrats, 100 Republicans, 1 Vacancies | Blue Majority: 1 Seat

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Nested Electoral Opportunities: 

  • Presidential Battleground – Pennsylvania narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020 (50.01%)
  • Critical US Senate Hold – Robert Casey (D) 
  • Competitive Congressional races: CD17, CD7, CD8, CD10

Contextual Opportunities

  • Democrats flipped a US Senate seat in 2022, John Fetterman (D) won by 5 pts; and voted for Democratic Governor and Lt. Governor
  • In 2022, Democrats picked up 10 seats flipping the House for the first time since 2010

Nevada Senate & Assembly

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 13 Democrats, 7 Republicans, 1 Vacancy | Blue Majority: 3 seats

Assembly: 27 Democrats, 14 Republicans, 1 Vacancy | Blue Majority 8 seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Nested Electoral Opportunities: 

  • Presidential Battleground – Nevada narrowly voted for Joe Biden by 30,000 votes (50.06%) in 2020
  • Critical US Senate Hold – Jacky Rosen (D) 
  • Competitive congressional race: CD3

Contextual Opportunities

  • Democrats defended a critical US Senate seat – Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) won in 2022 by 1 pt
  • Democrats picked up 1 seat in the Senate and 2 seats in the Assembly in 2022. This resulted in a veto-proof supermajority in the Assembly (lower chamber). Democrats need to pick up 1 seat in 2024 to create a veto-proof supermajority in the Senate

Expansion Opportunity: Minnesota Senate & House

State Legislative Opportunity

House: 70 Democrats, 64 Republicans | Blue Majority: 4 seats 

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Nested Electoral Opportunities: 

  • Presidential Battleground – Minnesota voted for Joe Biden (52.4%) in 2020
  • US Senate Hold – Amy Klobuchar (D)

Contextual Opportunities

  • In 2022, Minnesota reelected Democratic Governor Tim Waltz along with Democrats for Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Auditor and other positions. 

Wisconsin Senate

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 10 Democrats,  22 Republicans, 1 Vacancy | To Flip Blue: 6 Seats | To Break Supermajority: 1 Seat

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Nested Electoral Opportunities: 

  • Presidential battleground – Joe Biden carried Wisconsin in 2020 with 22,000 votes (49.45%)
  • Critical Senate Hold – incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D) up for reelection
  • Competitive Congressional race: CD3

Contextual Opportunities

  • Post-2020 census, Wisconsin’s General Assembly produced terribly gerrymandered legislative maps, but the newly liberal state Supreme Court majority ordered them thrown out, and fair maps have just been finalized. With 18 seats that voted for both Biden and Evers, Democrats have a clear path to majority. 
  • In 2023, judge Janet Protasiewicz won a seat on the state’s Supreme Court by 11 points, flipping to a liberal majority. The decisive win came from votes across the state – in fact, she would have won even without populous and liberal Dane County. 
  • In 2022, Wisconsin voted for Democratic Governor, Lt. Governor (Sister District alum Sara Rodriguez), Attorney General and Secretary of State. 

Georgia House

State Legislative Opportunity

House: 78 Democrats, 100 Republicans, 2 Vacancies | To Flip Blue: 12 Seats 

Broader Opportunities & Context

Electoral Opportunities:

  • Presidential Battleground – Joe Biden carried Georgia narrowly by 12,000 votes (49.47%) in 2020.

Contextual Opportunities

  • Democrats defended critical US Senate seat, Warnock (D) won by 4 pts in 2022
  • New legislative maps continue to be gerrymandered in favor of Republicans. However, open seats and new districts will provide opportunities for Democratic inroads
  • In 2022, Democrats picked up 1 seat in the state Senate and lost 3 seats in the state House, while Republicans held onto statewide seats including Governor.

North Carolina Senate & House

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 20 Democrats, 30 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 6 Seats (1 to break GOP supermajority)

House: 48 Democrats, 72 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 13 Seats (1 to break GOP supermajority)

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Electoral Opportunities: 

  • Presidential battleground – In 2020, Donald Trump carried North Carolina with just 49.93% of the vote.
  • Open seat for Governor (Roy Cooper (D) termed out) and Attorney General
  • Competitive Congressional race: CD1

Contextual Opportunities

In 2022, Democrats lost 2 seats in the Senate, falling into superminority. Democrats lost 2 seats in the House, but initially held enough seats to keep from superminority. However, a House Democrat switched party affiliation and joined the Republicans, delivering the GOP a veto-proof supermajority, allowing them to override the Democratic governor’s veto.