The Plan
Electoral Strategy

Our electoral strategy is the cornerstone of Sister District's mission: Win urgent elections to build Democratic majorities, strengthen progressive infrastructure, and create enduring power in state legislatures.

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2025-2026 Electoral Map

Our political strategy involves endorsing and supporting candidates in three types of state legislative chambers: blue flips, blue holds, and blue inroads.

Blue Flips

Chambers that Democrats can flip in one cycle.

Blue Hold

Chambers where Democrats have a fragile majority, which we must defend and expand.

Blue Inroads

Chambers where Democrats must build power for future chamber flips.

In 2025, Sister District will invest heavily in Virginia in targeted purple districts where we plan to have an outsized impact. We will also engage strategically with special elections where we have the opportunity to impact progressive power in key states.

2025: Virginia

  • Hold the VA House and drive engagement to flip the VA Governor’s mansion for a Democratic trifecta
  • Special Elections: Endorse in special state legislative elections when strategically appropriate

2026: Target States: AZ, GA, MI, MN, NC, NV, PA, WI

  • Blue Flips: MN (House), WI (Senate and Assembly), MI (House), AZ (House and Senate)
  • Blue Holds: PA (House), MN (Senate), MI (Senate), NV (Assembly and Senate)
  • Blue Inroads: PA (Senate), GA (House), NC (House and Senate)
  • Nested Opportunities: Prioritize states with nested competitive US Senate, US House, and Gubernatorial elections
  • Incumbent Protection: Invest in fragile incumbents. Incumbent protection has always been a key component of our electoral strategy

In 2025, Sister District will invest heavily in Virginia in targeted purple districts where we plan to have an outsized impact. We will also engage strategically with special elections where we have the opportunity to impact progressive power in key states.

2025: Virginia

  • Hold the VA House and drive engagement to flip the VA Governor’s mansion for a Democratic trifecta
  • Special Elections: Endorse in special state legislative elections when strategically appropriate

2026: Target States: AZ, GA, MI, MN, NC, NV, PA, WI

  • Blue Flips: MN (House), WI (Senate and Assembly), MI (House), AZ (House and Senate)
  • Blue Holds: PA (House), MN (Senate), MI (Senate), NV (Assembly and Senate)
  • Blue Inroads: PA (Senate), GA (House), NC (House and Senate)
  • Nested Opportunities: Prioritize states with nested competitive US Senate, US House, and Gubernatorial elections
  • Incumbent Protection: Invest in fragile incumbents. Incumbent protection has always been a key component of our electoral strategy

2025: Holding the VA House, Maintaining Progressive Power in States by Defending Democratic-Held Special Election Seats

Virginia: We will work to protect the Democratic majority in the House

Special Elections: We will endorse in strategically valuable special state legislative elections when possible.

Virginia House of Delegates

State Legislative Opportunity

House: 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans | Blue Majority: 1 Seat

Broader Electoral Opportunities

All 100 seats are up for election in 2025

Contextual Opportunities

  • Virginia voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 (51.8%)
  • All constitutional officers will be on the ballot and Democrats are hoping to flip all of them after being swept in 2021. (Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General) 
  • Democrats lost the House in 2021 by 733 votes in 3 key districts (the last similar election) 
  • Democrats won the House in 2023 by 975 votes in 1 key district (VA HD 21)
  • In 2024, Democrats maintained control of all of their previously held Congressional seats. 
  • In 2025, Democrats won two key special elections in the Senate District 42 and House District 26
  • While there was an increase in the number of House districts won by Kamala Harris vs. Joe Biden, the odd year electoral make-up, will determine success

2026: Maximizing Our Opportunities

Our electoral strategy will build upon our 2024 successes. Due to the volume of races, we cannot endorse candidates in every state holding elections. Instead, in 2026, as we pursue blue flips, blue holds, blue inroads, and building democratic trifectas, we will prioritize key states and races where we can leverage nested opportunities further up the ballot. With historic trends indicating that the party holding the White House often suffers midterm setbacks, we are poised to take advantage of the opportunities as they present themselves. 

While the final selection of states will depend on a variety of factors, in 2026, here are our likely states: 

Arizona Senate & House

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 13 Democrats 17 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 3 Seats

House: 27 Democrats, 33 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 4 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

  • Gov. Katie Hobbs Re-election
  • Re-elections of Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes and Attorney General Kris Mayes 
  • Impact two swing Congressional seats controlled by Republicans (AZ-01; AZ-06)

Contextual Opportunities

  • Arizonans voted for Trump by 5.5%
    • 5.8% shift from D to R, compared to 2020
  • Arizonans split their tickets and sent Ruben Gallego to Washington with 50.1% of the vote
  • Democrats lost seats in both chambers of the state legislature
    • One seat in the Senate
    • Two (2) seats in the House

Michigan House

State Legislative Opportunity

House: 52 Democrats, 58 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 4 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

  • Open Gubernatorial – Whitmer termed-out (D)
  • Open US Senate race – Peters not seeking re-election (D)
  • Three competitive congressional seats are at play in Michigan (MI-07, MI-08, MI-10) – two controlled by Republicans and one Democratic-held seat.

Contextual Opportunities

  • Michigan voted for President Donald Trump by 1.4%
    • 4.18% swing from 2020
  • Michigan voted for Senator-elect Slotkin by 0.3%
    • Vote margin of 20,217
  • Democrats lost the State House in ‘24, losing four seats, and relinquished control to the Republicans

Wisconsin

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 15 Democrats, 18 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 2 Seats 

House: 45 Democrats, 54 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 5 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

  • Gov. Tony Evers Re-election (D)
  • WI-03 is the only competitive congressional district in WI and is held by Republicans.

Contextual Opportunities

  • Wisconsin voted for Donald Trump with 49.7% of the vote
    • 1.53% swing toward Republicans, as compared to 2020
  • Wisconsin reelected Senate Tammy Baldwin with 49.4% of the vote
    • Vote margin of 29,116
  • With the new maps signed into law in February, Democrats gained significant ground and are poised to compete for the majorities in 2026
    • Democrats picked up 4 seats in the Senate
    • Democrats picked up 10 seats in the House

Minnesota House

State Legislative Opportunity

House: 66 Democrats, 67 Republicans, 1 Vacancy | 1 Seat Deficit

Broader Electoral Opportunities

  • Open US Senate Seat
    • Smith not seeking re-election (D)
  • Gov. Tim Walz Re-election (D)*
    • Has not formally announced re-election bid

Contextual Opportunities

  • Minnesota voted for Kamala Harris with 4.24% of the vote
    • A 1 2.86% shift to the right, as compared to 2020
  • Control of chamber & dynamics of 2026 election will be determined by the January 28th Special Election for HD 40B

Michigan Senate

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 20 Democrats, 18 Republicans | Blue Majority: 2 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

  • The entirety of the Michigan State Senate and State House is up in November 2026. 
  • MI Senate District 35, won by Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet in 2022 with 53.4% of the vote, is vacant after McDonald Rivet resigned to be sworn into Congress.
    • The district encompasses parts of Bay, Midland and Saginaw Counties.

Contextual Opportunities

  • Michigan voted for President Donald Trump by 1.4%
    • 4.18% swing from 2020
  • Michigan voted for Senator-elect Slotkin by 0.3%
    • Vote margin of 20,217
  • Democrats lost the House in ‘24, losing four seats, and relinquished control to the Republicans
  • Democrats have also had a contentious lame duck sessions, where Democrats have defected with Republicans to break quorum

Nevada Senate & Assembly

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 13 Democrats, 8 Republicans | Blue Majority: 5 seats

Assembly: 27 Democrats, 15 Republicans | Blue Majority: 12 seats 

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Gov. Lombardo Re-election (R)

Contextual Opportunities

  • Nevada voted for Donald Trump with 50.59% of the vote
    • 5.49% swing towards Republicans, as compared to 2024
  • Democrats did maintain
  • Democrats lost one seat in the Assembly, breaking the supermajority

Pennsylvania House

State Legislative Opportunity

House: 102 Democrats, 101 Republicans | Blue Majority: 1 Seat

Broader Electoral Opportunities

Gov. Shapiro Re-election (D)

Contextual Opportunities

  • Pennsylvania voted for Donald Trump by 50.4%
    • A 1.71% shift from D to R, compared to 2020
  • Republicans flipped a US Senate Senate in 2024, Dave McCormick defeated Bob Casey by 0.2% of the vote
    • Vote Margin of 16,205
  • The seat counts in the House did not change
    • No seat pick-ups, but all incumbents protected

Minnesota Senate

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 34 Democrats, 33 Republicans | Blue Majority: 1 Seat

Broader Electoral Opportunities

  • Open US Senate Race
    • Tina Smith not running for re-election (D)
  • Gov. Tim Walz Re-election (D)*
    • Has not formally announced re-election bid

Contextual Opportunities

  • Minnesota voted for Kamala Harris with 4.24% of the vote
    • A 1 2.86% shift to the right, as compared to 2020
  • With the Special Election in SD 45 (Ann Johnson Stewart), Democrats held onto their majority

Georgia House

State Legislative Opportunity

House: 80 Democrats, 100 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 11 Seats 

Broader Opportunities & Context

  • Open Gubernatorial – Gov. Kemp term-out (R)
  • Senator Ossoff (D) Re-election

Contextual Opportunities

  • Georgia voted for Donald Trump in 2024 with 50.7% of the vote
    • This is a 2.43% swing toward Republicans as compared to 2020
  • After another round of redistricting with unfavorable results, Democrats held their seat count in the Senate and gained two seats in the House

North Carolina

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 20 Democrats, 30 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 6 Seats

House: 49 Democrats, 71 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 12 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

  • Senator Tillis Re-election (R)
  • Democrats must also defend the vulnerable congressional seat in NC-01.

Contextual Opportunities

  • Even after unfavorable redistricting, Democrats were able to break out of the superminority in the House, protecting Governor Stein’s veto power
  • A superminority remains in the State Senate for Republicans, but Democrats did not lose a seat after unfavorable redistricting for the Senate maps as well
  • Democrats saw a landslide election for Governor Josh Stein, running against the controversy-ridden former Lt. Gov Mark Robinson
  • Democrats also picked the Lt. Governor’s office and Supreme Court race

Pennsylvania State Senate

State Legislative Opportunity

Senate: 22 Democrats, 28 Republicans | To Flip Blue: 4 Seats

Broader Electoral Opportunities

  • Gov. Shapiro Re-Election
  • Pennsylvania has four competitive Congressional districts, with Republicans holding three (PA-07, PA-08, PA-10) and one seat being Democratic-held (PA-17).

Contextual Opportunities

  • Pennsylvania voted for Donald Trump by 50.4%
    • A 1.71% shift from D to R, compared to 2020
  • Republicans flipped a US Senate Senate in 2024, Dave McCormick defeated Bob Casey by 0.2% of the vote
    • Vote Margin of 16,205
  • The seat counts in the State Senate did not change

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Sister District is a grassroots organization that aims to build enduring progressive power in state legislatures across the country, to improve people’s lives and support Democrats by filling critical gaps at every point in the political life cycle.
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