Downballot Roll-Off in 2024: A First Look at the Chamber-Level FindingsÂ
Sister District’s initial post-election analysis of state legislative races in 2024 reveals unexpected trends in downballot roll-off. While Democrats traditionally experience higher roll-off rates, chamber-level data suggests notable deviations—especially in North Carolina, where Democratic state legislative candidates outperformed Kamala Harris, and Republican candidates saw greater roll-off than expected. This report takes a first look at these patterns, comparing them to historical trends from 2016 and 2020.
States & Stats 12/19: Virginia 2025: Every Vote Counts—Here’s the Data to Prove It
Welcome to the final issue of the States & Stats Newsletter for 2024! In this edition, we look ahead to the critical 2025 elections for the Virginia House of Delegates. With Democrats holding narrow legislative majorities, we dive into lessons from past elections, including the impact of downballot roll-off, and explore strategies to motivate voters to support state legislative candidates. As we prepare for next year’s challenges, your support and engagement are more vital than ever.
Initial Post-Election State Legislative Analysis
Explore Sister District’s early analysis of 2024 state legislative results, including Democratic resilience in battleground states, voter behavior trends, and historic milestones.
States & Stats Newsletter 11/21: Initial Post-Election Battleground Analysis
Dive into Sister District’s November States & Stats Newsletter for an in-depth look at Democratic successes, downballot trends, and the razor-thin margins that shaped control in key state chambers.
States & Stats Newsletter 10/23: We’re in the Final Stretch
In this month’s issue of the States & Stats Newsletter, we dive into the importance of voting down the ballot in state legislative races. Our research uncovers why voters roll-off, the impact of state legislatures on critical issues like abortion rights, and how these races can be decided by razor-thin margins. Learn how to prevent roll-off and make every vote count with our Downballot Voter Toolkit and key findings.
States & Stats Newsletter 9/19: New Downballot Voter Toolkit to Reduce Roll-off
In this month’s States & Stats Newsletter, we dive into our Downballot Voter Toolkit, explore key barriers to voter engagement, and announce upcoming virtual events with political leaders and authors.
MEMO: Positive Impacts of Harris’s Candidacy on Democratic State Legislative Races
Discover how Vice President Kamala Harris’s candidacy is reshaping the landscape for Democratic state legislative races. With a seamless transition from Biden’s campaign, Harris brings a wealth of resources and enthusiasm that will bolster down-ballot candidates. Learn about the challenges of down-ballot roll-off and how Harris’s campaign provides a crucial boost to overcome these obstacles. This pivotal moment in the 2024 election cycle could determine the future of state legislative majorities and the protection of essential rights and freedoms.
States & Stats Newsletter 8/15: Flipping Chambers Without Turning Out A Single More Voter
Welcome to the August issue of the States & Stats Newsletter, highlighting the work of our award-winning political research team. This month, we explore how down-ballot roll-off affected partisan control of state legislatures in 2020. We also invite you to join our upcoming events with Daily Kos and author David Daley. Our research on state legislative data, voter behavior, and trends powers Sister District’s strategy and programs. Read on for detailed insights and special announcements.
Votes to Majority and Down-Ballot Roll-Off in 2020
Last updated: 8/7/2024 Abstract In this analysis, we focus on 13 Republican-controlled legislative chambers in battleground states that were closely contested in 2020. We determine how many seats Democrats would have needed to win in order to gain control of these chambers, and how many more votes Democratic state legislative candidates would have needed to […]
States & Stats Newsletter 7/18: Down the Ballot: Exploring Roll-off in 2022
Welcome to the July issue of the States & Stats Newsletter! Dive into our latest analysis of down-ballot roll-off rates, special announcements, and upcoming events. Discover key insights from the 2022 elections, learn about the challenges Democratic candidates face, and join us for virtual events with thought leaders like Ari Berman. Your feedback is always welcome as we continue to empower progressive change.
