Postcards to voters: How much handwriting matters?
This investigation measured the efficacy of completely handwritten and partially handwritten pro-choice postcards sent to modeled pro-choice Arizona voters ahead of the 2022 primary.
2022 Post-Election Analysis: Political Landscape & Larger Trends
This year’s midterms were historic – especially at the state legislative level. The question on many people’s minds is — what happened in state legislative elections this year, and what does it mean for Democrats’ future prospects?
2022 Immediate Sister District Post-Election Results
Democrats did something extremely special in state legislatures across the country: they largely held the line and even made gains in most battleground state legislative chambers. Read about our immediate results now!
Partisan control over time: Antecedents to flipping state legislatures
This analysis was a correlational study using archival data that sought to determine if the state-wide election results for President, Governor, and/or U.S. Senate flipping from one party to another could serve as a reliable antecedent to, 1) state legislative chambers subsequently flipping to that same party, and/or 2) the state becoming a trifecta for that party.
Surge and decline: How does the president in power affect state legislatures?
This analysis explores ‘surge and decline’, at the state legislative level. Surge and decline is a phenomenon where members of the president’s party tend to win seats in congress in the year the president is elected, but tend to lose seats in midterm congressional years.
Downballot roll-off: Lopsided roll-off among major parties may be linked to downballot losses
Downballot roll-off is a phenomenon where people vote for top-of-ticket candidates but then do not vote for downballot offices like state legislature.
Volunteer Voter Contact, Even from Afar, Helps Democrats Win
On August 1st, the New York Times published an opinion piece suggesting that progressive grassroots organizations that popped up post-2016 aren’t materially different from digital fundraising efforts used by large scale, top-down national groups and campaigns. The piece then argues that when those organizations offer volunteering opportunities, they are generally not a good use of […]
Votes to majority: State Legislative Chambers Often Decided by Narrow Margins
This analysis looks at a number of battleground state legislative chambers to determine how many votes Democrats would have needed in 2020 to gain a legislative majority in the districts that decided the majority.
Values-matched messaging: Are postcards with values-matched messaging effective?
This study tested whether voter turnout increased after voters received a handwritten postcard featuring ‘values-matched messaging,’ such that they highlighted policy votes that their state legislative representatives made in opposition to the voters’ modeled policy positions.
Building Bridges: State Bridges email fundraising test
This pseudo-experiment looked at the effect of two different email fundraising messages using either policy or values framing on fundraising conversion rates and donation amounts.
