As we head into this critically important midterm election year, Sister District is excited to announce our 2022 state targets and political strategy. This is a pivotal year for democracy: there are momentous Senate, Congressional and Gubernatorial elections in our states, and whoever we elect to state legislatures this year will be in office during the critical post-2024 election period. As Republican-controlled legislatures build toward a future where they can engineer election outcomes, and ruthlessly pursue regressive policies slashing voting rights and abortion access, it has never been more important for us to build and maintain power in our states.

Let’s be crystal clear at the outset: down-ballot Democrats are heading into a challenging political environment this year. Historically, the presidential party loses seats in midterm elections. This phenomenon is often misunderstood as a referendum on the President and his party. But actually, midterm performance is better understood as a reflection of out-party enthusiasm – in other words, results in this year’s midterms from the top to bottom of ticket will be driven in no small part by Republican enthusiasm. And, as our research at Sister District has shown year after year, even in strong Democratic performance years, down-ballot Democrats face significant challenges in terms of ballot roll-off and enthusiasm gaps.

Further, Virginia’s results last year were not what Democrats had hoped and worked for. We should be careful not to over-interpret the results in Virginia as a dark portend for 2022, because the Gubernatorial outcome was extremely narrow, and Democrats lost the House majority by an astonishingly small margin (less than 750 votes out of millions cast). But nonetheless, the Virginia results tend to indicate significant Republican enthusiasm as we head into this year’s elections.

What’s more, redistricting has produced a heterogeneous landscape for Democrats at the state legislative level. Some redistricting commissions, legislatures and courts in battleground states have produced relatively fair maps, while the redistricting processes in other states have produced far less fair maps and in some cases perpetuated outrageous gerrymanders. This means that, while there are a few states where Democrats have clear opportunities to pick up new state legislative seats in the short term, there are also a significant number of Democratic incumbents whose seats are at risk.

Taken together, we know that it will take a tremendous amount of resources, energy, and attention to hold the line and make gains in our states this year. At Sister District, we are ready to face the challenge head-on. We have identified the states with the biggest opportunities for progressive change at the state legislative level. And these states each also have extremely important broader electoral opportunities this year: competitive Senate, Congressional, Gubernatorial and Secretary of State races, in key presidential battlegrounds. Our work to elevate state legislative candidates will drive awareness and turnout up and down the ticket in the places that matter most in this historic election year.

2022 Strategy

Our general political strategy remains the same. Each year, we’re looking for state legislative chambers that fall within three categories: 1) Blue Flips, where we believe Democrats can compete for a legislative majority in the short-term; 2) Blue Holds, where Democrats have a fragile majority that is in immediate jeopardy of flipping red; and 3) Blue Inroads, where we likely cannot immediately flip a chamber blue, but where we must build progressive power to fight back against corrosive Republican power and position ourselves for future success.

In any given year, the mix of chambers and seats in these three categories changes, due to the schedule of state elections, which differs year to year; the composition of chambers, which shift after each election cycle; and the urgency of other key races and broader electoral opportunities that exist in each state.

This year, we are weighting our state selections towards:

1) states with nested competitive up-ballot races that have critical implications for the future of our democracy in 2022 and 2024, particularly Senate, Congressional, Gubernatorial and Secretary of State elections;

2) states where redistricting commissions, courts and legislatures have produced fairer maps where Democrats can win this year and over the next decade; and

3) states where Democratic incumbents are in particularly vulnerable positions, where we must stave off Republican supermajorities in critical battlegrounds.

Our efforts to drive awareness, resources, and turnout toward state legislative races nested in these battlegrounds will force-multiply up and down the ticket – expanding Democratic ranks wherever possible, and protecting fragile Democratic incumbents so we can hold the line and build toward further wins.

The States

Blue Flips:

Pennsylvania House:

  • State Legislative Opportunity: PA’s newly enacted state legislative House map gives Democrats the opportunity to compete for a legislative majority, in addition to defending a number of fragile incumbents.
  • Broader Electoral Opportunities: There is an open Gubernatorial election this year, as well as a strong open Senate flip opportunity. The Gubernatorial race is also critical because the Governor will appoint the next Secretary of State.
  • Battleground Context: Pennsylvania narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and it will continue to be a critical electoral battleground state from the Presidential level all the way down. It is also a democracy battleground, where GOP legislators and operatives are pursuing election subversion and sowing seeds of distrust in election administration.

Michigan Senate & House:

  • State Legislative Opportunity: MI’s Independent Redistricting Commission produced maps that give Democrats the opportunity to compete for legislative majorities, in addition to defending a number of fragile incumbents.
  • Broader Electoral Opportunities: There are critical Gubernatorial defend (D-Whitmer) and Secretary of State (D-Benson) elections this year, as well as several competitive Congressional seats (MI-07, MI-08, MI-03, MI-10) .
  • Battleground Context: Michigan narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and will continue to be a critical electoral battleground state from the Presidential level all the way down. It is also a democracy battleground, where GOP legislators and operatives are pursuing election subversion and sowing seeds of distrust in election administration.

Arizona Senate & House: 

  • State Legislative Opportunity: AZ’s Independent Redistricting Commission produced maps that give Democrats an opportunity to compete for legislative majorities, in addition to defending a number of fragile incumbents.
  • Broader Electoral Opportunities: There are open Gubernatorial and Secretary of State elections this year, as well as a critical Senate incumbent defend election (D-Kelly) and several competitive Congressional seats (AZ-01, AZ-06).
  • Battleground Context: Arizona narrowly voted for Joe Biden and elected two Democratic Senators in 2018 and 2020. It will continue to be a critical electoral battleground state from the Presidential level all the way down. It is also a democracy battleground, where GOP legislators and operatives are pursuing election subversion and sowing seeds of distrust in election administration.

Blue Hold:

Nevada Senate and House

  • State Legislative Opportunity: Newly drawn legislative maps maintain narrow but vulnerable Democratic majorities that must be defended.
  • Broader Electoral Opportunities: There is a critical Gubernatorial hold election this year (D-Sisolak), a critical Senate incumbent defend election (D-Cortez-Masto), several competitive Congressional seats (NV-01, NV-03, NV-04), and an important open Secretary of State election.
  • Battleground Context: Nevada narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and it will continue to be a critical electoral battleground state from the Presidential level all the way down. It is also a potential democracy battleground, where GOP operatives and allies have pushed allegations of election fraud and mistrust in election administration.

Blue Inroads:

Wisconsin Assembly (House)

  • State Legislative Opportunity: While the new state legislative maps have not yet been finalized, we know that the Republican-controlled legislature is working to further gerrymander the maps. Democrats are likely to be just a few seats away from falling into legislative superminority, which must be prevented.
  • Broader Electoral Opportunities: There is a critical Gubernatorial hold election this year (D-Evers), as well as a strong Senate flip opportunity (R-Johnson). The Secretary of State election will also be an important hold (D-La Follette), though in this state, the position does not oversee elections as in other states.
  • Battleground Context: Wisconsin narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and it will continue to be a critical electoral battleground state from the Presidential level all the way down. It is also a democracy battleground, where GOP legislators and operatives are pursuing election subversion and sowing seeds of distrust in election administration.

Georgia House

  • State Legislative Opportunity: The newly drawn legislative maps remain gerrymandered in favor of Republicans; however, the House maps provide Democrats with the opportunity to compete for several new seats, in addition to defending fragile incumbents.
  • Broader Electoral Opportunities: There is a strong Gubernatorial flip opportunity this year (R-Kemp), as well as a critical Senate incumbent defend election (D-Warnock) and an important Secretary of State flip opportunity (R-Raffensperger).
  • Battleground Context: Georgia narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and it will continue to be a critical electoral battleground state from the Presidential level all the way down. It is also a democracy battleground, where GOP legislators and operatives are pursuing election subversion and sowing seeds of distrust in election administration.

North Carolina Senate & House

  • State Legislative Opportunity: New legislative maps have not yet been finalized, but the NC Supreme Court has ordered them to be redrawn again, after impermissible Republican gerrymandering. The new maps are likely to afford Democrats some opportunities to compete for additional seats, in addition to defending a number of fragile incumbents.
  • Broader Electoral Opportunities: There is a strong open Senate flip opportunity this year.
  • Battleground Context: North Carolina narrowly voted for Donald Trump in 2020 and will continue to be a critical battleground state from the Presidential level all the way down.

While we may not ultimately endorse candidates in all of the chambers listed above, we will endorse in all of these states. Final selections will depend on a number of factors, including final map competitiveness and candidate readiness.

Endorsements & What’s Next

Right now, we are building relationships and listening to partners on the ground in each of our 2022 states, carefully watching candidate filing deadlines, and getting our endorsement process going. Candidate recruitment has been challenging this year in various states, since the census delays last year cascaded into redistricting process delays, along with litigation challenging new maps that has further delayed and moved deadlines. Nonetheless, as the dust continues to settle, it is extremely exciting to see that so many women, candidates of color, and other candidates from diverse communities and backgrounds are stepping up to run for state legislature all across the country this year. We are energized and excited to support these candidates, so we can build a reflective democracy that includes a broad chorus of American voices. Read more about our candidate selection process.

We plan to announce our first wave of endorsements in late April, with a second wave of endorsements possible in June.

We have the opportunity for 2022 to be a banner year for American democracy, up and down the ticket, from coast to coast. But we will only win if we work together to organize smartly, welcome new voters into the electoral process, and execute strong voter turnout programs.

Now is the time to organize, and to spend your time and resources where you can have the biggest impact. Join us – all are welcome in this fight. Make no mistake: this may be our toughest year yet at Sister District. The battles we face in our states this year are profound and urgent. But many hands make this work light. Together, we will take a stand, hold the line, and fight for our future.

Check out our 2022 states page to dive into this year’s targets.