Heading into a pivotal presidential election year, Sister District is thrilled to unveil our 2024 state targets and political strategy. With Republican-controlled legislatures aggressively working to shape a future where they can manipulate election outcomes and slash voting rights and abortion access, all beneath the gaze of a mission-aligned revanchist Supreme Court supermajority, the urgency for us to establish and preserve power in our states has reached an all-time high.
Let’s make no mistake: the momentum is with down-ballot Democrats. Riding the wave of historic victories in 2022 and continued success in 2023, we’re sailing into this year with full force behind us. 2022 marked a significant break from the usual midterm pattern in which the President’s party suffers losses across the board. Fueled by outrage over the Supreme Court’s deeply unpopular Dobbs decision, which dismantled federal abortion rights, Democrats not only succeeded in re-electing every incumbent senator but also expanded their Senate majority, secured most competitive gubernatorial races, and came within 6,600 votes of holding the U.S. House.
The news was bright at the state legislative level too. We gained 4 new blue trifectas, held on to fragile majorities in states like New Mexico and Maine, forged a governing coalition in the Alaska Senate, and flipped the Pennsylvania House. Democrats secured or preserved chamber-level supermajorities in Vermont, Delaware, and Nevada, and thwarted attempts by Republicans to achieve supermajorities in Wisconsin and, at first, in North Carolina. Impressively, 2022 marked the first midterm since 1934 where the President’s party didn’t lose control of any state chamber.
We rolled those wins right into 2023. Democrats in Virginia proudly championed abortion access, successfully flipping the House of Delegates and retaining control of the Senate. And pro-choice Democratic Governor Andy Beshear celebrated a triumphant re-election in Kentucky.
Taken together, we enter 2024 well-positioned to maintain control of vulnerable chambers, flip a few more, and make inroads in longer-term strategic states. Among other incredible opportunities described below, we have the chance to flip chambers in places like Arizona and Wisconsin (!!), hold onto fragile majorities in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, and break Republican trifectas and supermajorities in New Hampshire and North Carolina, respectively.
But we know that it will take a tremendous amount of resources, energy, and attention to win at this level of the ballot.
At Sister District, we are ready to face the challenge head-on. Our data-driven chamber and district targeting process is both quantitatively rigorous and qualitatively inclusive to identify the chambers and districts where we can make the most impact. The result is a rich, data-forward approach that enables us to make early, targeted investments where it will matter most.
Importantly, each state on our roadmap is also a presidential battleground, and many have critical Senate, Gubernatorial, and Congressional contests this year. By leveraging organizing opportunities in areas with overlapping races, our work at the state legislative level will reverberate up to the top of the ballot.
Our research has shown that state legislative races and chambers are often decided by astonishingly small margins, and that down-ballot Democrats experience ballot roll off much more frequently than down-ballot Republicans (where a voter ticks the top of the ballot, but doesn’t vote all the way down to the state legislative level). It’ll take all of us working together to help our candidates win by raising small grassroots dollars, talking to voters in their districts, and providing them with good strategy and guidance. At Sister District, I know our community is ready to do all of that and more. Read on to learn about our plan for this year!
2024 Strategy
Our general political strategy remains the same. Each year, we’re looking for state legislative chambers that fall within three categories: 1) Blue Flips, where we believe Democrats can compete for a legislative majority this year; 2) Blue Holds, where Democrats have a fragile majority that is in jeopardy of flipping red; and 3) Blue Inroads, where we likely cannot immediately flip a chamber blue, but where we must build progressive power to fight back against corrosive Republican power and position ourselves for future success.
In any given year, the mix of chambers and seats in these three categories changes, due to the schedule of state elections, which differs year to year; the composition of chambers, which shift after each election cycle; and the urgency of other key races and broader electoral opportunities that exist in each state.
This year, we are weighting our state selections towards:
1) Nested Contests: presidential battlegrounds with nested competitive up-ballot races that have critical implications for the future of our democracy and key issues including abortion, particularly Senate, Congressional and Gubernatorial contests
2) Fairer Maps: states where redistricting commissions, courts and legislatures have produced fairer maps where Democrats can fairly compete; and
3) Smart Defense: states where we can break and stave off Republican supermajorities
Our efforts to drive awareness, resources, and turnout toward state legislative races nested in these battlegrounds will force-multiply up and down the ticket. The following section outlines the opportunities in each target state. Chambers identified as Expansion Opportunities are where we are eager to invest, provided we secure additional resources to do so.
The States
Blue Flips
Arizona Senate & House
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- State Legislative Opportunity: Democrats need to flip 2 seats in each chamber to gain a majority.
- Nested Electoral Opportunities: Critical Presidential battleground – Joe Biden carried Arizona in 2020 with 10,000 votes (49.36%). There is a toss-up US Senate election (Sinema (I), several competitive Congressional races (AZ CD1; AZ CD6), and a citizen-initiated ballot initiative to protect abortion access may be on the ballot (to be determined this summer), all of which will galvanize voters.
- Contextual Factors: Democrats won critical U.S. Senate election – Mark Kelly (D) in 2022 by 5 pts; and Arizona voted for a Democratic Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General in 2022. Further, Democrats held the line in the state House and Senate in ‘22. It is also a democracy and abortion battleground, where GOP legislators and operatives are pursuing election subversion and sowing seeds of distrust in election administration, and pursuing draconian abortion restrictions.
Wisconsin Assembly
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- State Legislative Opportunity: Democrats need to flip 15 in the Assembly to gain majority. Fair maps have just been finalized.
- Nested Electoral Opportunities: Critical Presidential battleground – Joe Biden carried Wisconsin in 2020 with 22,000 votes (49.45%). There is a critical US Senate election, with incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D) running for reelection, and a competitive Congressional race (CD3).
- Contextual Factors: Wisconsin’s future is bright. Post-2020 census, Wisconsin’s General Assembly produced terribly gerrymandered legislative maps (again); new progressive state Supreme Court majority ordered them thrown out, and fair maps are expected by March. This presents a massive, generational opportunity for Democrats to attain majorities. In 2023, liberal judge Janet Protasiewicz won a seat on the state’s Supreme Court by a whopping 11 points, flipping to a progressive majority. The decisive win came from votes across the state – in fact, she would have won even without populous and liberal Dane County. And in 2022, Wisconsin voted for Democratic Governor, Lt. Governor (Sister District alum Sara Rodriguez), Attorney General and Secretary of State. The state is a democracy and abortion battleground, where GOP legislators and operatives are pursuing election subversion and sowing seeds of distrust in election administration, and pursuing draconian abortion restrictions.
Pennsylvania Senate
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- State Legislative Opportunity: Democrats need to flip 4 seats in the Senate to gain majority.
- Nested Electoral Opportunities: Critical Presidential battleground – Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania in 2020 with 80,000 votes (50.01%). There is a critical US Senate election, with incumbent Bob Casey (D) running for reelection, and several competitive Congressional races (CD 10, CD7, CD8, CD17).
- Contextual Factors: In 2022, Democrats flipped a US Senate seat, with John Fetterman (D) winning by 5 points, and picked up 1 state Senate seat. Pennsylvania also voted for a Democratic Governor and Lt. Governor that year. The state is a democracy and abortion battleground, where GOP legislators and operatives are pursuing election subversion and sowing seeds of distrust in election administration, and pursuing draconian abortion restrictions.
[Expansion Opportunity – New Hampshire Senate & House]
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- State Legislative Opportunity: Democrats need to flip 3 seats in the Senate and 4 seats in the House to gain a majority in each chamber.
- Nested Electoral Opportunities: Critical Presidential battleground – Joe Biden carried New Hampshire in 2020 with 52.71% of the vote. There is a competitive open Gubernatorial race.
- Contextual Factors: In 2022, Democrats held on to Senator Maggie Hassan’s seat and gained 21 seats in the state House, but reelected a Republican governor and lost a seat in the state Senate. Democrats won all five special elections for the House held in 2023, each of which were marked by strong Democratic overperformance.
Blue Holds
Michigan House
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- State Legislative Opportunity: Democrats flipped the Michigan House in 2022, and vacancies in blue districts leave the chamber in a tie. After April special elections, Democrats will need to protect a likely 2 seat majority.
- Nested Electoral Opportunities: Critical Presidential battleground – Michigan narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020 (50.56%). There is a critical open US Senate seat (Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring), as well as several competitive Congressional seats (MI CD7, MI CD8, MI CD10) .
- Contextual Factors: Post-2020, MI’s Independent Redistricting Commission produced fair maps, and Democrats flipped both chambers (Senate up next in 2026). In 2022, Michigan voted for a Democratic Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State. The state is also a democracy battleground and abortion battleground, where GOP legislators and operatives have pursued election subversion and sowed seeds of distrust in election administration, and where Democrats have fought successfully for abortion access.
Pennsylvania House:
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- State Legislative Opportunity: Democrats flipped the Pennsylvania House in 2022, and after special elections due to vacancies, Democrats will need to protect a likely 1 seat majority.
- Nested Electoral Opportunities: Critical Presidential battleground – Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania in 2020 with 80,000 votes (50.01%). There is a critical US Senate election, with incumbent Bob Casey (D) running for reelection, and several competitive Congressional races (CD 10, CD7, CD8, CD17).
- Contextual Factors: In 2022, Democrats flipped a US Senate seat, with John Fetterman (D) winning by 5 points, and picked up 10 seats to flip the House. Pennsylvania also voted for a Democratic Governor and Lt. Governor that year. The state is a democracy and abortion battleground, where GOP legislators and operatives are pursuing election subversion and sowing seeds of distrust in election administration, and pursuing draconian abortion restrictions.
Nevada Senate and House
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- State Legislative Opportunity: Democrats have a 3 seat majority in the Senate and an 8 seat majority in the Assembly.
- Nested Electoral Opportunities: Critical Presidential battleground – Joe Biden carried Nevada in 2020 by 30,000 votes (50.06%). There is a critical US Senate election, with incumbent Jacky Rosen (D) running for reelection, and a competitive Congressional seat (NV CD3).
- Contextual Factors: In 2022, Democrats defended a critical US Senate seat, with Cortez-Masto (D) winning by 1 point. Democrats picked up 1 seat in the Senate and 2 seats in the Assembly in 2022, resulting in a supermajority in the Assembly (lower chamber). However, Republicans elected their Gubernatorial candidate.
[Expansion Opportunity – Minnesota House]
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- State Legislative Opportunity: Democrats have a 4 seat majority.
- Nested Electoral Opportunities: Critical Presidential battleground – Joe Biden carried Minnesota in 2020 with 52.3% of the vote. There is an important US Senate election, with incumbent Amy Klobuchar (D) running for reelection.
- Contextual Factors: In 2022, Minnesota reelected Democratic Governor Tim Walz along with Democrats for Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Auditor and other positions.
Blue Inroads
Wisconsin Senate
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- State Legislative Opportunity: Democrats need to flip 6 seats in the Senate to gain majority and 1 seat to break Republican supermajority. Fair maps have just been finalized. Only half of the chamber is up for election this year.
- Nested Electoral Opportunities: Critical Presidential battleground – Joe Biden carried Wisconsin in 2020 with 22,000 votes (49.45%). There is a critical US Senate election, with incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D) running for reelection, and a competitive Congressional race (CD3).
- Contextual Factors: Post-2020 census, Wisconsin’s General Assembly produced terribly gerrymandered legislative maps, but the newly liberal state Supreme Court majority ordered them thrown out, and fair maps have just been finalized. With 18 seats that voted for both Biden and Evers, Democrats have a clear path to majority. In 2023, judge Janet Protasiewicz won a seat on the state’s Supreme Court by 11 points, flipping to a liberal majority. The decisive win came from votes across the state – in fact, she would have won even without populous and liberal Dane County. And in 2022, Wisconsin voted for Democratic Governor, Lt. Governor (Sister District alum Sara Rodriguez), Attorney General and Secretary of State. The state is a democracy and abortion battleground, where GOP legislators are pursuing election subversion and sowing seeds of distrust in election administration, and pursuing draconian abortion restrictions.
Georgia House
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- State Legislative Opportunity: New legislative maps remain gerrymandered in favor of Republicans, but open seats and new districts provide opportunities for Democratic inroads
- Nested Electoral Opportunities: Critical Presidential battleground – Joe Biden carried Georgia narrowly by 12,000 votes (49.47%) in 2020.
- Contextual Factors: In 2022, Democrats defended critical US Senate seat, Raphael Warnock (D), but came up short in the state legislative and gubernatorial races. The state is a democracy and abortion battleground, where GOP legislators and operatives are pursuing election subversion and sowing seeds of distrust in election administration, and pursuing draconian abortion restrictions.
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North Carolina Senate & House
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- State Legislative Opportunity: New legislative maps remain gerrymandered in favor of Republicans, and will stand this year despite litigation. Open seats and new districts provide opportunities for Democratic inroads and to break the Republican supermajority in each chamber that allows them to override the Governor’s veto.
- Nested Electoral Opportunities: Critical Presidential battleground – In 2020, Donald Trump carried North Carolina with just 49.93% of the vote. This year, there are open Gubernatorial and Attorney General elections, and a competitive Congressional race (CD1).
- Contextual Factors: In 2022, Democrats lost 2 seats in the Senate, falling into superminority. Democrats lost 2 seats in the House, but initially held enough seats to keep from superminority. However, a House Democrat switched party affiliation and joined the Republicans, delivering the GOP a veto-proof supermajority, allowing them to override the Democratic governor’s veto. The state is a democracy and abortion battleground, where GOP legislators and operatives are pursuing election subversion and sowing seeds of distrust in election administration, and pursuing draconian abortion restrictions.
*Note: chamber composition as of February 12, 2024. We may not ultimately endorse candidates in all of the chambers listed above – final selections will depend on a number of factors, including final map competitiveness and candidate readiness.
Endorsements & What’s Next
Right now, we are building relationships and listening to partners on the ground in each of our 2024 states, carefully watching candidate filing deadlines, and getting our endorsement process going. As the dust settles on candidate recruitment, it is extremely exciting to see that so many women, candidates of color, and other candidates from diverse communities and backgrounds are stepping up to run for state legislature all across the country this year. We are energized and excited to support these candidates, so we can build a reflective democracy that includes a broad chorus of American voices. Read more about our candidate selection process.
We plan to announce our first wave of endorsements in late April, with a second wave of endorsements in June.
We have the opportunity for 2024 to be a banner year for American democracy, up and down the ticket, from coast to coast. But we will only win if we work together to organize smartly, welcome new voters into the electoral process, and execute strong voter turnout programs.
Now is the time to organize, and to spend your time and resources where you can have the biggest impact. Join us – all are welcome in this fight. Make no mistake: the battles we face in our states this year are profound and urgent. But many hands make this work light, and momentum is on our side. Let’s do it!
Check out our 2024 states page to dive into this year’s targets.