Downballot Roll-Off in 2024: A First Look at the Chamber-Level Findings 

Sister District’s initial post-election analysis of state legislative races in 2024 reveals unexpected trends in downballot roll-off. While Democrats traditionally experience higher roll-off rates, chamber-level data suggests notable deviations—especially in North Carolina, where Democratic state legislative candidates outperformed Kamala Harris, and Republican candidates saw greater roll-off than expected. This report takes a first look at these patterns, comparing them to historical trends from 2016 and 2020.

States & Stats Newsletter 8/15: Flipping Chambers Without Turning Out A Single More Voter

Welcome to the August issue of the States & Stats Newsletter, highlighting the work of our award-winning political research team. This month, we explore how down-ballot roll-off affected partisan control of state legislatures in 2020. We also invite you to join our upcoming events with Daily Kos and author David Daley. Our research on state legislative data, voter behavior, and trends powers Sister District’s strategy and programs. Read on for detailed insights and special announcements.

Down-ballot Roll-off Patterns in 2022

Many voters tend to vote only in high-salience contests at the top of the ticket and skip state legislative races farther down the ballot, a behavior known as down-ballot roll-off. Our analysis of election data from 2012-2022 shows that this phenomenon disproportionately affects Democratic candidates. Despite strong performances in the 2022 elections, Democratic candidates still experienced higher rates of roll-off compared to Republicans. This trend persisted across various states and districts, highlighting the significant electoral impact of down-ballot roll-off on state legislative races.

Values-Matched Messaging Replication: Holding Anti-Abortion Legislators to Account

Abstract: This study tested the effect on turnout of receiving a handwritten postcard highlighting the policy votes that a voter’s state legislative representative cast in opposition to the modeled policy position of the voter. The study design was a randomized controlled trial, with a postcard condition in which voters received a handwritten postcard with issue-specific […]