Downballot Roll-Off in 2024: A First Look at the Chamber-Level Findings

Sister District’s initial post-election analysis of state legislative races in 2024 reveals unexpected trends in downballot roll-off. While Democrats traditionally experience higher roll-off rates, chamber-level data suggests notable deviations—especially in North Carolina, where Democratic state legislative candidates outperformed Kamala Harris, and Republican candidates saw greater roll-off than expected. This report takes a first look at these patterns, comparing them to historical trends from 2016 and 2020.
States & Stats Newsletter 8/15: Flipping Chambers Without Turning Out A Single More Voter

Welcome to the August issue of the States & Stats Newsletter, highlighting the work of our award-winning political research team. This month, we explore how down-ballot roll-off affected partisan control of state legislatures in 2020. We also invite you to join our upcoming events with Daily Kos and author David Daley. Our research on state legislative data, voter behavior, and trends powers Sister District’s strategy and programs. Read on for detailed insights and special announcements.
Down-ballot Roll-off Patterns in 2022

Many voters tend to vote only in high-salience contests at the top of the ticket and skip state legislative races farther down the ballot, a behavior known as down-ballot roll-off. Our analysis of election data from 2012-2022 shows that this phenomenon disproportionately affects Democratic candidates. Despite strong performances in the 2022 elections, Democratic candidates still experienced higher rates of roll-off compared to Republicans. This trend persisted across various states and districts, highlighting the significant electoral impact of down-ballot roll-off on state legislative races.
Insurrectionist Accountability: Texting Voters about Candidate Participation in the January 6 Insurrection

This study tested the effect of receiving a text message about their local state house or senate candidate’s participation in the January 6, 2021 insurrection on constituents’ likelihood of voting in the November 2022 general election.
How Much Handwriting Matters? Measuring Downstream Effects of Postcards to Voters

This investigation measured the downstream (general election) effects of sending completely handwritten or partially handwritten postcards with pro-choice messaging to likely pro-choice voters in Arizona ahead of the 2022 primary.
Values-Matched Messaging Replication: Holding Anti-Abortion Legislators to Account

Abstract: This study tested the effect on turnout of receiving a handwritten postcard highlighting the policy votes that a voter’s state legislative representative cast in opposition to the modeled policy position of the voter. The study design was a randomized controlled trial, with a postcard condition in which voters received a handwritten postcard with issue-specific […]
Rings of Three, Leave it Be: Testing the Three Rings Approach to Phonebanking

This study tested the trade-offs between contact rate and the number of conversations with two methods of phonebank calling: letting the phone ring through to voicemail or hanging up the phone if it hasn’t been answered in 3 rings.
New voters of color: Do welcome messages emphasizing voter identity increase turnout?

This study tested the efficacy of handwritten postcards that welcomed newly registered 18- and 19-year-old voters of color and gave them information about the upcoming election for increasing voter turnout.
Postcards to voters: How much handwriting matters?

This investigation measured the efficacy of completely handwritten and partially handwritten pro-choice postcards sent to modeled pro-choice Arizona voters ahead of the 2022 primary.
Surge and decline: How does the president in power affect state legislatures?

This analysis explores ‘surge and decline’, at the state legislative level. Surge and decline is a phenomenon where members of the president’s party tend to win seats in congress in the year the president is elected, but tend to lose seats in midterm congressional years.